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University of Nebraska Cooperative Extension 304B H.C. Filley Hall P.O. Box 830922 Lincoln, NE 68583-0922 1-800-PORKCTR 1-800-767-5287
Dr. Duane Reese
| Market Roundup
Producers are involved in many new and different
arrangements in the swine industry. Marketing, pricing, and delivering hogs
has become different from the past. Producers are more involved than ever
before. Send Pork Central your comments on the markets and what concerns you.
HOGS
Lean hogs are lower on the week but appear to have stabilized following the big
sell off into and after the bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report this past Friday. The
weekly close was $1.75 lower on the August contract, which is roughly $8 below the
high printed 2 weeks ago. On the Quarterly USDA Hog and Pig report seen a week ago
the total hog and pig number came in at 106% of a year ago which was just above the
high side estimate and about 1.5% higher than the average trade guess. The Kept for
Breeding number was at 99% versus the average trade guess of 98.6%. Cash trade
appears to have stabilized in the $70-$71 area, but has made no real bounce here yet. The
market sold off for a few days following the bearish March Quarterly report which is
likely to occur again. The current hog market and the current grain prices make feeding
hogs a losing item right now if producers were unhedged. The June 2009 hit a new high
at $99.75 last week, sold off a bit and ended up turning and rallying to a new high by
Thursday moving over $100, so although the 2008 contracts have seen pressure, the 2009
contracts are still pricing-in solid herd liquidation in the year ahead. Hedgers please call
with questions.
Corn
Lean hogs are lower on the week but appear to have stabilized following the big
sell off into and after the bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report this past Friday. The
weekly close was $1.75 lower on the August contract, which is roughly $8 below the
high printed 2 weeks ago. On the Quarterly USDA Hog and Pig report seen a week ago
the total hog and pig number came in at 106% of a year ago which was just above the
high side estimate and about 1.5% higher than the average trade guess. The Kept for
Breeding number was at 99% versus the average trade guess of 98.6%. Cash trade
appears to have stabilized in the $70-$71 area, but has made no real bounce here yet. The
market sold off for a few days following the bearish March Quarterly report which is
likely to occur again. The current hog market and the current grain prices make feeding
hogs a losing item right now if producers were unhedged. The June 2009 hit a new high
at $99.75 last week, sold off a bit and ended up turning and rallying to a new high by
Thursday moving over $100, so although the 2008 contracts have seen pressure, the 2009
contracts are still pricing-in solid herd liquidation in the year ahead. Hedgers please call
with questions.
SOY COMPLEX
Soybean trade has remained on a firm uptrend reaching fresh contract highs on
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The weekly closes were 71 higher on the
November soybean contract, December meal was $19 higher and bean oil was up 152.
The November contract high on Wednesday reached a whopping $16.36 3/4 per bushel!
A firm crude oil market continues to be a supportive force for corn and beans, plus we
saw the lowest close in the dollar in over a month on Wednesday. The planting progress
number was listed at 95% which was up 4% from last week and 3% behind the 5-year
average. It is simply late for planting, beans going in the ground over the past few weeks
are faced with much lower yield potential. The soybean crop ratings were up 1% at 58%
good to excellent. The weekly export sales for beans were at 465,900 tons of old crop and
176,500 tons of new crop which combined were above expectations. Meal sales were
listed at 158,100 tons of old crop which was above expectations. Bean oil sales were
listed at 6,100 tons which were within expectations. The annual soybean sales pace is
now 1.5% above the USDA estimate so an upward revision of the export number is very
likely on the monthly report this coming Friday. The Monday morning June Soybean
acreage number came in at 74.5 million acres versus an average trade guess of 74.26
million. The Quarterly stocks came in at 676 million versus an average trade guess of
662 million with a range between 615 and 720 million. So both numbers were lightly
negative versus trade expectations, but beans were only down briefly and continued to act
very strong. Weather has improved, which limited upside early in the week and is likely
going to limit upside if not pressure the market in the week ahead. The USDA came up
with a few more acres overall for major crops, but the market right now is discounting
these greater acres due to losses with our flooding and too wet Midwest conditions. The
trend remains up heading into the holiday; we may even see some additional fire works
next week, but the action will be solely tied to the weather and forecasts. Hedgers call
with questions.
If you like the information in the Weekly Ag Market Breakdown and know
others that may benefit or enjoy the extra insight into the ag markets feel
free to forward on their email to " fiala@futuresone.com " and they will
begin receiving the weekly emails.
The information contained herein is gathered from sources we believe to be
reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change
without notice. There is significant risk in trading futures. To find out
how to receive daily research, give us a call at 1-800-488-5121 or email me
at fiala@futuresone.com.
Glen Grimes & Ron Plain
Click here for the latest report.
Ron Plain
Click here for the swine economics report.
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Wayne D. Purcell
Agricultural and Applied Economics
Virginia Tech
Check here to see what Wayne has to say.
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Get the Carlot Meat Trade Here.
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Click here for the Feeder Pig Report.
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Pork producers who want to market their meat products may want to check the following
site for meat prices.
Click here for Urner Barry's Yellowsheet.
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Kansas State University's
Hog Market Databases
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