Pork Central Support Team
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University of Nebraska
Cooperative Extension
304B H.C. Filley Hall
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Lincoln, NE 68583-0922

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1-800-767-5287

Dr. Duane Reese

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Market Roundup



Producers are involved in many new and different arrangements in the swine industry. Marketing, pricing, and delivering hogs has become different from the past. Producers are more involved than ever before. Send Pork Central your comments on the markets and what concerns you.

Dr. Duane Reese

  • Market Charts   Pork Producers who hedge, or just watch the market, check AgWeb's hog
    futures information.

  • Dave Fiala's Report


    The futuresone.com -- Weekly Ag Market Breakdown
    By David M. Fiala
    Thursday October 1, 2009

    HOGS

  • Support on Dec: 4747 Resistance: 5177
  • Support on Feb: 5507 Resistance: 5852

    Lean hog trade has been higher this week due to light chart buying. After three days of trade, the weekly net change is 10 higher on the October contract and December is 57 higher. The market has continued to build on the rally following the friendly Hogs and Pigs report last Friday. Cash trade has slipped back below $50 due to the collapsing cutout values. Chain speed remains aggressive which should limit cash selling interest, but it will be important for processing margins to remain firm or packers will be unlikely to maintain big weekend kill plans. There is some short covering in the futures market which may continue near-term, but cash trade will likely dictate how long we can continue our recent rally. The chart is holding above support at 4767 which is the 40- day moving average, but a move below this area would likely promote additional long liquidation. Hedgers call with questions. You should be looking at your margins now and scaling into hedges.

    Corn

  • Dec09 Support: 322 Resistance: 357
  • Dec10 Support: 372 Resistance: 404

    Corn trade is higher on the week heading into Thursday due to chart buying, some frost concerns and a friendly USDA Quarterly Stocks report. The weekly net change is 10 higher on the December contract. The outside market influence has also been supportive; crude is over $4 higher and has recovered over half of the losses from last week. The dollar is lightly lower and the DOW is steady. The USDA released the quarterly stocks numbers on Wednesday. The September 1 corn stocks were listed at 1.674 billion bushels versus the average trade guess of 1.719 and the low side estimate of 1.665. Exports have been good and the ethanol usage pace picked up this summer, so the higher usage that lead to a lower than expected is not a surprise. The final size of the crop we have begun harvesting remains the biggest items we need to know. I believe this should limit upside, but the chart still looks good so buying could be around near-term. The weekly crop ratings were steady to 68% good to excellent. Progress numbers had denting at 90% versus the 97% 5-year average, mature at 37% versus the 72% 5-year average and 6% of the crop was harvested versus the 18% 5-year average. So the slow maturity remains a concern that is limiting downside in corn even though the yields continue to look big and many are expecting 2 to 5 bushels per acre yield increase on upcoming USDA reports. The weekly export sales came in at 1.223 million tons which was above expectations. I would advise hedgers to consider PUT options under all unsold bushels. The better than expected yields may bring your breakeven costs down around the $3 area. There is still an opportunity to create your own “LDP” with some cheap puts, which would offer protection from a sharp price decline if we get record yields. Specifically buy some just below the money puts to help lock in your break even costs as best you can. Call us to discuss this. I am concerned a combination of a big harvest and a turn in the outside markets could give us a tumble that we can not afford. Hedgers call with questions.

    SOY COMPLEX

  • Nov Support: 892 Resistance: 954
  • Dec Meal: 275 Resistance: 293
  • Dec Oil: 3268 Resistance: 3548

    Soybean trade is lightly higher this week due to outside market support. Heading into Thursday, the weekly net changes are 1 higher on the November contract and January is up 2. Meal is $1.60 higher and oil is lightly lower for the week Position squaring ahead of the Quarterly Stocks report was noted for the choppy trade. The September 1 bean stocks number was pegged at 138 million bushels which was 26 million greater than the average trade guess. There are those that want to debate this number, but the bottom line is that it just does not matter at this point. New crop beans are coming in and what pipeline beans were put into the quarterly stocks number were put into the number. At the end of the day, the yield numbers have been coming in bigger than expected which means we really need the outside markets to step up to support trade. Weather items should continue to dictate trade; recent rains have delayed the early southern harvest. This should limit selling interest in the nearby November contract, but there is some talk about increase South American acres which could keep market bulls on the sidelines. The weekly export number was at 1.384 million tons which was above expectations. Meal sales were below expectations with 5,900 tons of old crop and 60,900 tons of 2009/10. The soybean oil sales big with 52,800 tons of old crop and 144,700 tons of new. The weekly progress report listed 63% of the crop dropping leaves versus the 77% 5-year average. Crop rating slipped 1% down to 66% good to excellent. On the November chart, the market moved above the 10- moving average, which could promote some follow-through buying, but nearby resistance is just above the current market at $9.28 which is the 20-day and then up at $9.40. In the big picture yields should determine if we break back toward the yearly lows at $8.82 or find support here. Hedgers call with questions.

    If you like the information in the Weekly Ag Market Breakdown and know others that may benefit or enjoy the extra insight into the ag markets feel free to forward on their email to " fiala@futuresone.com " and they will begin receiving the weekly emails.

    The information contained herein is gathered from sources we believe to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. There is significant risk in trading futures. To find out how to receive daily research, give us a call at 1-800-488-5121 or email me at fiala@futuresone.com.

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  • Hog Outlook

    Glen Grimes & Ron Plain

    Click here for the latest report.

    Swine Economics Report

    Ron Plain

    Click here for the swine economics report.

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    Purcell Agricultural Commodity Market Report

    Wayne D. Purcell

    Agricultural and Applied Economics

    Virginia Tech

    Check here to see what Wayne has to say.

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    National Carlot Meat Trade Review

    Get the Carlot Meat Trade Here.

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    NATIONAL FEEDER PIG SUMMARY

    Click here for the Feeder Pig Report.

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    Pork producers who want to market their meat products may

    want to check the following site for meat prices.

    Click here for Urner Barry's Yellowsheet.

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    James Mintert, Extension Agricultural Economist, Livestock Marketing K-State Research & Extension

    Kansas State University's Hog Market Databases

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    Cash Prices Reports from a variety of markets.

    Mandatory Price Reports

    Data from Pork Board Marketline

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    Check out alternate marketing at:

    Nebraska Farmers Choice

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