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Dave Fiala's Report

The futuresone.com -- Weekly Ag Market Breakdown By David M. Fiala Thursday July 3, 2008 HOGS Support on August: 6945 Resistance: 7245 Support on October: 6762 Resistance: 7102 Lean hogs are lower on the week but appear to have stabilized following the big sell off into and after the bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report this past Friday. The weekly close was $1.75 lower on the August contract, which is roughly $8 below the high printed 2 weeks ago. On the Quarterly USDA Hog and Pig report seen a week ago the total hog and pig number came in at 106% of a year ago which was just above the high side estimate and about 1.5% higher than the average trade guess. The Kept for Breeding number was at 99% versus the average trade guess of 98.6%. Cash trade appears to have stabilized in the $70-$71 area, but has made no real bounce here yet. The market sold off for a few days following the bearish March Quarterly report which is likely to occur again. The current hog market and the current grain prices make feeding hogs a losing item right now if producers were unhedged. The June 2009 hit a new high at $99.75 last week, sold off a bit and ended up turning and rallying to a new high by Thursday moving over $100, so although the 2008 contracts have seen pressure, the 2009 contracts are still pricing-in solid herd liquidation in the year ahead. Hedgers please call with questions. Corn Support on August: 6945 Resistance: 7245 Support on October: 6762 Resistance: 7102 Lean hogs are lower on the week but appear to have stabilized following the big sell off into and after the bearish Quarterly Hog and Pig report this past Friday. The weekly close was $1.75 lower on the August contract, which is roughly $8 below the high printed 2 weeks ago. On the Quarterly USDA Hog and Pig report seen a week ago the total hog and pig number came in at 106% of a year ago which was just above the high side estimate and about 1.5% higher than the average trade guess. The Kept for Breeding number was at 99% versus the average trade guess of 98.6%. Cash trade appears to have stabilized in the $70-$71 area, but has made no real bounce here yet. The market sold off for a few days following the bearish March Quarterly report which is likely to occur again. The current hog market and the current grain prices make feeding hogs a losing item right now if producers were unhedged. The June 2009 hit a new high at $99.75 last week, sold off a bit and ended up turning and rallying to a new high by Thursday moving over $100, so although the 2008 contracts have seen pressure, the 2009 contracts are still pricing-in solid herd liquidation in the year ahead. Hedgers please call with questions. SOY COMPLEX Nov Support: 1493 Resistance: 1706 Dec Meal: 387 Resistance: 451 Dec Oil: 6485 Resistance: 7165 Soybean trade has remained on a firm uptrend reaching fresh contract highs on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. The weekly closes were 71 higher on the November soybean contract, December meal was $19 higher and bean oil was up 152. The November contract high on Wednesday reached a whopping $16.36 3/4 per bushel! A firm crude oil market continues to be a supportive force for corn and beans, plus we saw the lowest close in the dollar in over a month on Wednesday. The planting progress number was listed at 95% which was up 4% from last week and 3% behind the 5-year average. It is simply late for planting, beans going in the ground over the past few weeks are faced with much lower yield potential. The soybean crop ratings were up 1% at 58% good to excellent. The weekly export sales for beans were at 465,900 tons of old crop and 176,500 tons of new crop which combined were above expectations. Meal sales were listed at 158,100 tons of old crop which was above expectations. Bean oil sales were listed at 6,100 tons which were within expectations. The annual soybean sales pace is now 1.5% above the USDA estimate so an upward revision of the export number is very likely on the monthly report this coming Friday. The Monday morning June Soybean acreage number came in at 74.5 million acres versus an average trade guess of 74.26 million. The Quarterly stocks came in at 676 million versus an average trade guess of 662 million with a range between 615 and 720 million. So both numbers were lightly negative versus trade expectations, but beans were only down briefly and continued to act very strong. Weather has improved, which limited upside early in the week and is likely going to limit upside if not pressure the market in the week ahead. The USDA came up with a few more acres overall for major crops, but the market right now is discounting these greater acres due to losses with our flooding and too wet Midwest conditions. The trend remains up heading into the holiday; we may even see some additional fire works next week, but the action will be solely tied to the weather and forecasts. Hedgers call with questions. If you like the information in the Weekly Ag Market Breakdown and know others that may benefit or enjoy the extra insight into the ag markets feel free to forward on their email to " fiala@futuresone.com " and they will begin receiving the weekly emails. The information contained herein is gathered from sources we believe to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. There is significant risk in trading futures. To find out how to receive daily research, give us a call at 1-800-488-5121 or email me at fiala@futuresone.com. Back to Top Hog Outlook Glen Grimes & Ron Plain Click here for the latest report. Swine Economics Report Ron Plain Click here for the swine economics report. Back to Top _________________________________________________________________________ Purcell Agricultural Commodity Market Report Wayne D. Purcell Agricultural and Applied Economics Virginia Tech Check here to see what Wayne has to say. Back to Top _____________________________________________________________________________ National Carlot Meat Trade Review Get the Carlot Meat Trade Here. Back to Top _______________________________________________________________________________ NATIONAL FEEDER PIG SUMMARY Click here for the Feeder Pig Report. Back to Top _______________________________________________________________________________ Pork producers who want to market their meat products may want to check the following site for meat prices. Click here for Urner Barry's Yellowsheet. Back to Top _______________________________________________________________________________ James Mintert, Extension Agricultural Economist, Livestock Marketing K-State Research & Extension Kansas State University's Hog Market Databases Back to Top ________________________________________ Cash Prices Reports from a variety of markets. Mandatory Price Reports Data from Pork Board Marketline Back to Top ___________________________ Check out alternate marketing at: Nebraska Farmers Choice Back to Top __________________________________________